There's a group in Japan, the "Economy Watchers Survey" folks.
They walk about asking people whose jobs are regarded as closely in touch with economic trends. You know, convenient store workers, massage parlors and vending machine filler uppers. Taxi drivers and restaurant staff, too.
They are asked two questions -
1. how is business compared to three months ago?
2. how do they perceive business three months from now?
The boom-or-bust line is set at 50. Above that number, things are looking good. Time to shop for sumo tickets, hang out and see kabuki. Below that line it's time to go home and face the missus, eat instant noodles instead of tachisoba.
Last month the figure was 36.6. Not good. The glass was half empty and had a hole in it.
This month, the hole is big enough to stick a taco yaki through. The number is 31.8 points. It's the tenth month in a row below 50. And, the economy keeps huffing and puffing along.
Is the line too high?
January's outlook index asked other workers to predict business conditions also fell to 35.8 in January from 37 in December.
Good or bad, the Eeyores are speaking the loudest in the surveys.
Is it possible that business is somewhat good, but they just want it to be better?
Or are Japanese just pessimistic in general?
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